Vaccine against covid-19 should bring recovery to markets damaged by the pandemic and hurt the price of Bitcoin
Coronavirus vaccination can bring relief to the traditional market and bear market to BitcoinNOTÍCIAS
Only the vaccine for covid-19 should bring recovery to markets most impacted by the pandemic.
This is what Bernardo Pascowitch, founder of Yubb, the country’s largest investment seeker, points out.
Thus, for the specialist, the arrival of a coronavirus immunisation with proven effectiveness and accessible to the population is the main signal for the market to emerge from the period of instability that marked the year 2020.
„Companies that have suffered greatly from quarantine tend to excel in 2021. Six sectors attract attention: airlines, shopping malls, tourism, shows and events, education and banks. But these are bets considering a scenario of population vaccination,“ Pascowitch points out.
Furthermore, according to him, with a recovery in the economy, bank shares tend to rise again driven by a new demand for credit.
„The banks, for example, are still under a lot of pressure on account of credit. With the vaccine, credit quality tends to improve and the sector is likely to lend more, reduce provisioning and stocks may appreciate“.
But mass vaccination around the world, as has been happening, could shorten the cycle of contamination, which would indicate a strengthening of traditional assets – and, as a result, would indicate a weakening of Bitcoin.
That is the opinion of João Marco Braga da Cunha, portfolio manager at Hashdex.
„It is likely that at some point the price will go backwards, as is the nature of crypto assets. But it does not seem that we are facing a bubble, which would cause such a big setback in price, as it happened at the end of 2018. The euphoria of the record could stimulate a profit-making movement, just as it happens in the stock market,“ he told the portal 6 minutes.
Stocks on the rise
In the case of equities, Bernardo points out that there are markets that have already risen considerably in 2020, reversing the initial drop in the beginning of the pandemic.
This is the case with retail and technology companies, which should not be overvalued in a vaccination scenario. However, it is important for the market to pay attention not only to the projections, but above all to concrete measures.
„There is a great deal of optimism about vaccines, but no one knows for sure when they will arrive and how effective they will be. Therefore, there may be moments of price correction throughout 2021. And if there are difficulties for vaccination all over the world, a second or third wave of the coronavirus may happen, especially after the end-of-year parties. Unfortunately, there is still the possibility of getting worse before the market improves“, Bernardo ponders.
Real estate funds (FIIs) tend to follow the same logic as Brazilian stocks.
„In a vaccination scenario, real estate funds should be valued, especially those that suffered most from the quarantines in 2020, such as shopping centers. However, with this issue on the rise over new waves of coronavirus and, respectively, new quarantines, the FIIs are still under great pressure and unstable for the coming months. It is also worth a caveat for corporate slab funds, because we don’t know if the companies will fully return to their offices,“ Bernardo said.
On the American scene, the end of the year was marked by new fiscal stimuli in states. In January, the new president of the United States, Joe Biden, will defend a new package.
„This injection of resources into the world’s largest economy has some significant impacts. First, the weakening of the dollar, and this could cause a currency devaluation in Brazil. Second, there may be a large appreciation in the US indices. After all, a lot of money in the economy increases consumption, business income and investors‘ appetite for stocks. This could set new records for the major US indices,“ Pascowitch said.
Still on foreign stocks, Bernardo highlights the BDRs.
„By the end of 2020, they have been released to all investors on the Brazilian stock market, and by 2021 liquidity will have increased. „An important cut-off for ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) BDRs: they will be released next year. It will be easier for Brazilian investors to diversify into other sectors of the American, European and Asian economies,“ he concludes.